Islam in Bosnia & Herzegovina: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Bosnia & Herzegovina

Islam entered it when the Ottoman Empire conquered Bosnia in 1463 during the reign of Sultan Mohammed el Fatih, and Herzegovina (Southern part) in 1482. This was in response to an appeal by Bogomil residents to avoid religious prosecution by Catholic and Orthodox Churches. When Bosnians were introduced to Islam, they found many similarities in it with their belief, thus they embraced Islam. As the Ottoman Empire started getting weaker, it was forced to abandon Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Austria-Hungary Empire in 1878.

This country was able to declare its independence from crumbling Yugoslavia in 1992. But this decision was met by a bloody war, in which Serbia and Croatia wanted to divide the new country between them. This resulted in systematic ethnic cleansing of the Muslim majority, leading to millions of deaths and refugees. The massacres stopped by 1995 following the Dayton Accord, and the country is now independent with Muslims constituting the largest religious minority. Currently, Bosnia and Herzegovina have an area of 51,209 sq km. It consists of two governing entities: Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (26,111 sq km or 51% of the total area), and Republika Srpska (24,606 sq km or 48%), with a third region, the Brčko District (493 sq km or 1%) being administered by both.

Based on census data as shown in Table 4.1.2a, the Muslim population changed from 0.33 million or 35.8% in 1851, to 0.42 million or 32.8% in 1865, to 0.54 million or 51.9% in 1871, to 0.48 million or 45.6% in 1876, to 0.45 million or 38.7% in 1879, to 0.49 million or 36.9% in 1885, to 0.55 million or 35.0% in 1895, to 0.61 million or 32.3% in 1910, to 0.59 million or 31.1% in 1921, to 0.72 million or 30.9% in 1931. This is due to massacres of some Muslims, and migration of others to the Ottoman Empire and Turkiye. The percentage then increased to 0.89 million or 33.4% in 1948, decreased to 0.89 million or 32.2% in 1953, then increased constantly since then to 1.12 million or 34.1% in 1961, to 1.48 million or 39.6% in 1971, to 1.63 million or 39.5% in 1981, reaching 1.91 million or 43.8% in the last census of 1991 and 1.79 million or 51.3% in 2013. In 1961, the number of Muslims was taken as those declaring themselves Muslim by nationality (842,248) and those declaring themselves as Yugoslavs (275,883). In 1971 to 1991, only those declaring themselves Muslim by nationality were considered Muslim.

The independence war in 1992-1995 decreased the total population, but the 2013 census showed that Serbs and Croats were decreased more than Bosnians. The percentage of decrease was 27.3% for Croats, 9.3% for Serbs and 3.5% for Bosnians. Table 4.1.2b shows the distribution of Muslims in the three autonomous regions of Bosnia since 1961. The 2013 census showed that 88% of Muslims live in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) which is an increase from 52% in 1991 and 43% in 1961. The ratio of Muslims living in FBiH of total Muslims in BiH increased from 69% in 1961, to 75% in 1991, to 88% in 2013. On the other hand, in 2013 Muslims made up only 14% of the population in Republika Srpska (RS), which is a decrease from 28% in 1991. The ratio of Muslims living in RS decreased from 29% in 1961, to 24% in in 1981, to 23% in 1991, to 10% in 2013.

Thus, assuming that the percentage of Muslims in Bosnia and Herzegovina will increase by two percentage points per decade; then the Muslim population is expected to reach 1.6 million or 59% by 2050, and 1.2 million or 69% by 2100.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Bosnia & Herzegovina

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.