Islam in Estonia: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Estonia

The Republic of Estonia gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and has an area of 45,225 sq km and its map is presented in Figure 4.2.2. After the Russian occupation in 1700, some Tatar Muslims moved in to Estonia. But, according to the 1881 census, there were eleven Tatars in the country.

The 1897 Russian Empire census indicated that the Muslim population was 124 or 0.01% of the total population of Estonia in its current borders. This estimate is based on the data from the Governorates of Eastonia which had 75 Muslims, and Livonia excluding Kreis of Wenden, Wolmar and Riga which are in Latvia.

Based on ethnic data, the number of Muslims dropped to zero in 1922 as a result of Estonia’s independence from the Russian Empire in 1918. The number of Muslims increased later to 182 or 0.02% in 1934, of which 166 are Tatar and 16 are Turks. Censuses since 1959 collected ethnic affiliation demography of the population. The top twelve Muslim ethnicities in Estonia from largest in number are Tatar, Azerbaijani, Bashkir, Uzbek, Kazakh, Lezghin, Chechen, Turkmen, Tajik, Avar, Kyrgyz and Turk. The number of members of each of these ethnicities since 1959 is provided in Table 4.2.2a. Based on ethnic censuses, the Muslim population increased to 3,000 or 0.3% in 1959, to 4,000 or 0.3% in 1970, to 5,000 or 0.4% in 1979, and peaked at 8,000 or 0.5% in 1989.

According to the 2000 census, which inquired on religious adherence of population aged 15 and older after the independence of Estonia from the Soviet Union in 1991, the Muslim population dropped to 1,387 or 0.2% in 2000 and then increased to 1,508 or 0.2% in 2011 and 5,800 or 0.6% in 2021. These censuses also showed that only 754 or 29% in 2000 and 604 or 31% in 2011 of Tatars were Muslim. The next largest ethnic affiliation of Muslims was Estonian 83 in 2000 and 148 in 2011 and 430 in 2021, then Russian: 79 in 2000 and 107 in 2011 and 100 in 2021.

Thus, assuming that the percentage of Muslims will continue to increase by a fifth of a percentage point per decades; then the Muslim population is expected to increase to 14,000 or 1.2% in 2050 and 18,000 or 2.2% in 2100.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Estonia

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.