Islam in Ethiopia: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Ethiopia

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has an area of 1,104,300 sq km and its map is presented in Figure 3.3.4a. It was briefly occupied by the Italians between 1936 and 1941 and formerly known as Abyssinia. A 1924 estimate of the Muslim population puts it at 3.0 million or 37.5% of the total population [MAS23]. However, subsequent census data showed an increase from 12.6 million or 32.9% in 1984, to 17 million or 32.8% in 1994, to 25 million or 33.9% in 2007.

The 1984 census excluded the rural population of Tigray (2.2 million or 90%) and Eritrea (2.2 million or 85%). According to the 2007 Census, only 3% of the rural and 8% of the urban population of Tigray is Muslim. Thus, Muslim population from the 1984 Census could be estimated at 31% of the total population.

Thus, assuming that the percentage of Muslims will continue to increase by half of a percentage point per decade; then the Muslim population is expected to reach 77 million or 36.0% by 2050 and 124 million or 38.5% by 2100.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Ethiopia

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.