Islam in Kazakhstan: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Kazakhstan

Islam started spreading into current Kazakhstan from its south in theeighth century. It was part of the Golden Horde Mongol Empire from thethirteenth to the fifteenth century. The whole country came underMuslim control when Sultan Mohammed Öz-Beg accepted Islam beforetaking the throne of the Golden Horde and ruled it from 1313/713H to1341/742H. He adopted Islam as the state’s religion and continued thespread of Islam among the Turkic people. The leaders of the GoldenHorde remained Muslims afterwards. By then the Empire controlledsignificant parts of current Russia (the region west of a line extendingfrom the short Russian-Chinese border between Kazakhstan andMongolia to the Arctic Ocean), Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Moldova, easternPoland, Romania and Bulgaria.

It was conquered by Russia in the eighteenth century and gained itsindependence upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991/1412H.The current territory of Kazakhstan was carved out by the Soviets fromhistoric Turkistan in three stages. First, in 1920/1338H the KirghizAutonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (ASSR) was created as part of theRussian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (SFSR). Then in 1925/1343H,it was renamed Kazakh ASSR, and it included until 1930/1349H theKarakalpak Autonomous Oblast (AO); a 160,000 sq km area referred tonow as Karakalpakstan and is the northwestern part of currentUzbekistan. Finally, in 1936/1355H Kazakh ASSR was separated fromRussian SFSR and elevated to Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR),which in 1991/1412H became the Republic of Kazakhstan. It has an areaof 2,724,900 sq km

The 1897 Russian Empire census indicated that Muslims made up86.6% of Kazakhstan in its current borders. This estimate is based on thedata from six Oblasts: Turgay, Urals, Semipalatinsk, Akmola (excludingOmsk Uyezd which is in current Russia), Semirechye (excludingPishpek and Przhevalsky Uyezds which are in current Kyrgyzstan), SyrDarya (exluding Tashkent and Amu Darya Uyezds which are in currentUzbekistan), and Inner Kirghiz Horde Uyezd of the AstrakanGovornorate, the rest of the latter is in current Russia, and MangyshlakUyezd from Transcaspain Oblast, the rest of the latter is in currentTurkmenistan.

Censuses since 1926 collected ethnic affiliation demography of thepopulation, about fifty of whom are Muslim. The top fifteen Muslim ethnicities in Kazakhstan from largest in number are Kazakh, Uzbek,Uygur, Tatar, Turk, Azeri, Dungan, Kurd, Tajik, Chechen, Kyrgyz,Bashkir, Ingush, Lezghin and Romani (Gypsy). The number of membersof each of these ethnicities since 1926 is provided in Table 2.2.2a. As thename of the country suggests, almost 90% of Muslims are Kazakh.

Based on the ethnic census data, the Muslim population continued todecrease due to Russian policies of mass deportations of ethnic Muslimsand government planned migration of non-Muslim ethnicities. Indeed,the Muslim population decreased in number and percentage from 4.1million or 86.6% in 1897, to 3.9 million or 62.5% in 1926 (excludingKarakalpakstan region, which is included in Uzbekistan), to 2.6 millionor 43.0% in 1939, it then reached 3.5 million or 37.1% in 1959. TheMuslim population continued to increase since then both in number andpercentage to 5.0 million or 38.7% in 1970, to 6.3 million or 42.8% in 1979,to 7.7 million or 47.1% in 1989, to 9.2 million or 61.4% in 1999, to 11.2million or 70.6% in 2009, and 13.3 million or 77.9% in 2021. Thus, thepercentage of Muslims almost doubled in a half of a century; from 1959to 2009. In the 2021 Census, over two million people did not provide heireligion, thus the were excluded from the total population in figuring outthepercentage of Muslims

The surge in the Muslim percentage following the independence ofKazakhstan in 1991 was caused by the return of many ethnic Kazakhsfrom neighboring countries, and the departure of non-Muslim ethnicitiessuch as Germans, Russians, and Ukrainians. The religion adherencequestion was included for the first time in the 2009 census. Using ethnicdata for the same year give slightly higher number with about 110,000extra persons

Assuming the percentage of Muslims will increase by two percentagepoints per decade; then the Muslim population is expected to reach 21million or 84% by 2050 and 32 million or 94% by 2100.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Kazakhstan

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.