Islam in Montenegro: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Montenegro

Islam entered Montenegro when the Ottoman Empire conquered the lands in 1452. Muslims lost control of Montenegro when its residents rebelled and declared independence in 1697. In 2006, it was the last country to gain independence from Yugoslavia. Currently, Montenegro has an area of 13,812 sq km

Based on census data, the Muslim population increased from 14,000 or 6.1% in 1895, to 56,000 or 18.0% in 1921, to 61,000 or 17.0% in 1931, but decreased to 20,000 or 5.3% in 1948, but bounced back to 74,000 or 17.7% in 1953, then decreased to 56,000 or 12.0% in 1961, then peaked in percentage to 106,000 or 20.0% in 1971 then continued to decrease in percentage to 116,000 or 19.8% in 1981, to 118,000 or 20.1% in 1991, to 110,000 or 17.9% in 2003, and then increased to 118,000 or 20.2% in 2011.

The censuses of 1895, 1921, 1931, 1953, 1991, and on did inquire on the religion. The decrease of the percentage of Muslims in 1948 and 1961 ethnic censuses is due the fact that many Muslims declared themselves as Montenegrins. Muslim ethnicity was introduced in 1961 census and onward, which makes deduction of religious affiliation from ethnic affiliation more accurate.

When inferring religious adherence from ethnicity in 1948, 1961, 1971, and 1981, Albanians and Muslims by nationality were assumed Muslim. The numbers of these ethnicities recorded in each census is provided in Table 4.1.7b. In Yugoslavia times, Bosnians used to declare themselves as Muslim by nationality, and Bosnian ethnicity was first collected in the 2003 census. So as the number of declared Bosnians increased, the number of Muslim nationals decreased. Table 4.1.7b also shows that the difference between inferring religious adherence based on these ethnic affiliations and the result of the religion question in post-independence censuses. But it seems from 1953 and 1991 censuses which collected religious information; that Muslims made up between 18% and 19% of the total population throughout the second half of the twentieth century.

Thus, assuming that the percentage of Muslims will increase by a fifth of a percentage point per decade; then the Muslim population is expected to remain around 0.1 million throughout this century, comprising 21% of the total population by 2050 and 22% by 2100.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Montenegro

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.