Islam in Nigeria: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Nigeria

The Federal Republic of Nigeria has an area of 923,768 sq km and is the most populous nation in Africa. Its map is presented in Figure 3.4.8. It was occupied by the British in 1885 and gained its independence from the UK in 1960. Islam entered here from the northwest through the Za Dynasty of the Songhai Empire, whose ruler Kusoy Muslim Dam converted to Islam in 1010. Islam also entered from the northeast with the establishment of the Sayfawa Muslim Dynasty of the Kanem-Bornu Empire in 1085 by Hummay bnu Abdul Jalil.

The majority of the northern half of Nigeria is Muslim. According to 1911 estimate, the Muslim population was eight million or 46.2% of the total population. Later census data indicate an increase to 27 million or 45.3% in 1953, and 26 million or 47.2% in 1963. According to DHS survey data, the percentage of Muslims was 47.53% in 1990, 44.42% in 1999, 50.43% in 2003, 44.73% in 2008, 51.80% in 2013 and 53.51% in 2018.

Thus, assuming that the percentage of Muslims will continue to increase by a quarter of a percentage point per decade; then the Muslim population is expected to reach 0.2 billion or 52.8% by 2050 and 0.3 billion or 54% by 2100.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Nigeria

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.