Islam in Palestine: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Palestine

Muslims conquered Palestine in 15H or 636AD, during the time ofCaliph Omar, who entered Jerusalem without war. Currently, the totalarea of this region is 28,292 sq km, distributed as follows: Israel 22,072 sqkm, West Bank 5,860 sq km, and Gaza Strip 360 sq km. A map of theseterritories is presented in Figure 2.3.7. It was taken by the British fromthe Ottomans in 1922, then Israel was declared in 1948, Jordanadministered the West Bank and Egypt administered Gaza Strip. TheStrip and the Bank were occupied by Israel in 1967.

Based on census and Ottoman population registry data, the Muslimpopulation increased in number but decreased in percentage from 0.30million or 88.2% in 1850, to 0.33 million or 88.1 % in 1860, to 0.39 millionor 87.6% in 1877, to 0.40 million or 87.4% in 1880, to 0.42 million or 87.0%in 1885, to 0.45 million or 86.4% in 1890, to 0.47 million or 85.6% in 1895,to 0.50 million or 85.1% in 1900, to 0.53 million or 84.6% in 1905, to 0.57million or 84.0% in 1910, to 0.60 million or 83.4% in 1914, to 0.61 millionor 81.7% in 1918, to 0.64 million or 77.5% in 1922, to 0.70 million or 74.5%in 1926 (estimate), to 0.78 million or 73.5% in 1931. Later estimates showthat the trend continued to 0.88 million or 63.3% in 1936, to 1.00 millionor 63.2% in 1941, to 1.18 million or 60.5% in 1946. After the state of Israelwas declared, the statistics for Israel included those living in 1948occupied lands and Israeli citizens who live in colonies in the West Bankand Gaza Strip. The Palestinian statistics on the other hand, coversPalestinians who live in Gaza Strip and the West Bank and excludesthose who live in Jerusalem. The statistics also exclude Israeli citizenswho live in this region as they are covered under Israel.

Based on census data , the Muslimpopulation in Israel increased from 0.11 million or 9.5% in 1949, to 0.17million or 7.8% in 1961, to 0.36 million or 11.2% in 1972, to 0.54 million or13.2% in 1983, to 0.81 million or 14.0% in 1995, to 1.25 million or 16.9% in2008 and 1.6 million or 17.9% in 2017. Assuming the Muslim populationcontinues to increase by one percentage point each decade, then it isexpected to reach three million or 21% by 2050 and five million or 26%by 2100.

Regarding Palestinians, the Muslim population in Gaza Stripincreased from 0.35 million or 99.0% in 1967, to 1.0 million or 99.8% in1997, to 1.4 million or 99.9% in 2007, to 1.9 million or 99.9% in 2017. Onthe other hand, the Muslim population in the West Bank increased from1.56 million or 97.6% in 1997, to 2.2 million or 98.1% in 2007, to 2.7million or 98.3% in 2017. The data is summarized in Tables 2.3.7b and2.3.7c, for the Strip and the Bank, respectively. Assuming the percentageof Muslims will continue to increase by a fifth of a percentage point bothterritories combined; then the Muslim population is expected to reachnine million by 2050, and thirteen million by 2100.

All in all , the percentage ofMuslims in Historical Palestine continued to decrease to 47.8% or 1.1million in 1950, to 41.0% or 1.2 million in 1960, to 35.8% or 1.4 million in1970. However, Muslim percentage started to increase constantly sincethe Israeli occupation of the rest of Palestine. Accordingly, the percentage of Muslims increased to 37.1% or 1.9 million in 1980, to 39.2%or 2.7 million in 1990, to 42.5% or 3.9 million in 2000, to 45.7% or 5.1million in 2010, to 47.4% or 6.5 million in 2020. With the previousassumptions, the Muslim population is expected to exceed eleven millionor 53% by 2050 and get close to eighteen million or 56% by 2100.