Islam in Russia: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Russia

Islam entered the northern Caucasus in 22H or 643AD during the time of Caliph Omar. The Muslim troops led by the Prophet’s companion Bakeer bnu Abdellah al-Ashaj, followed by troops from the western side led by the Prophet companion Utba bnu Farqad Assulami, until they conquered Derbent city (Babel-Abwab) in southern Dagestan on the west coast of the Caspian Sea. Islam then continued spreading among the Turkic peoples, including the conversion of the king of Volga Bulgaria or Khanate of Volga in 310H or 922AD. His name was Almış, which he replaced by adopting the Arabic name Jaafar bnu Abdillah, after the Abbasid King Jaafar al-Muqtader, who encouraged him to Islam.

This Muslim Khanate was taken by the Pagan Tatar Golden Horde Empire in 1236AD, led by Batu Khan who reigned from 1242 to 1255, and was a grandson of Genghis Khan. Batu’s grandson, Sultan Mohammed Öz-Beg accepted Islam before taking the throne and reigned from 1313 to 1341. He adopted Islam as the state’s religion and continued the spread of Islam among Tatars. By then the Empire controlled significant parts of current Russia (the region west of a line extending from the short Russian-Chinese border between Kazakhstan and Mongolia to the Arctic Ocean), Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Moldova, eastern Poland, Romania and Bulgaria.

The Golden Horde collapsed few years after it was devastated by Timur the Lame in 1395, who was the ruler of the Timurid Empire, another Tatar Muslim Empire in Central Asia. The Golden Horde disintegrated into several Muslim Khanates:

• Qasim, with its capital Kasimov, 200 km southeast of Moscow, established in 1452 and was a vassal state to Christian Orthodox Russia, until it was abolished and annexed by Russia in 1681.
• Kazan, with its same name capital 700 km east of Moscow, established in 1438 and was bitterly destroyed by and annexed by Russia in 1552, under the reign of the Russian Tsar, Ivan IV the Terrible who ruled Russia from 1533 to 1584.
• Astrakhan, north of the Caspian Sea with its same name capital. The Khanate was established in 1466 and was bitterly destroyed by and annexed by Russia in 1556 under the rule of Ivan IV the Terrible.
• Sibir, with its same name ruined capital 2000 km east of Moscow, and 1000 km north of Nur-Sultan, the capital of current Kazakhstan. The Khanate was established in 1490 and was bitterly destroyed and annexed by Russia in 1598, under the reign of the Russian Tsar son of Ivan IV, Feodor I who ruled Russia from 1584 to 1598.
• Crimea, with its capital Bahçeseray, south of the Crimean Peninsula. The Khanate was established in 1441, it controlled the peninsula, south Ukraine Proper and northwest Caucasus, by which having full control over the Azov Sea. Eventually, the Khanate was conquered by the Russian Empire in 1783 under the reign of Tsar Catherine II, who ruled Russia from 1762 to 1796.
• Kazakh, with its capital Turkistan located south of current Kazakhstan. The Khanate was established in 1456 and was conquered by the Russian Empire in 1847 under the reign of Tsar Nicholas I, who ruled Russia from 1796 to 1855.

Currently, the Russian Federation is the largest country in the world with total area of 17,098,242 sq km and its map is presented in Figure 4.2.6a. It spans two continents with four million sq km in Europe and thirteen million sq km in Asia. However, less than quarter of the population lives in the Asian part. In other words, while 23% of Russia is in Europe, only 23% of the Russian population lives in the Asian part. The Muslim population is spread all over the country but is concentrated in the Caucasus and central Asian part. The Russian territory is organized in eight federal districts, three of which lay in the Asian continent (Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern), while the rest are in the European continent. A ninth federal district was established in 2014 that consists of the Crimean Peninsula that was annexed from Ukraine and remains internationally recognized as part of the later. Thus, almost a quarter of the Russian land and almost three-quarter of its population are in the European side. The eight federal districts are:

• Central: Has an area of 652,800 sq km (4%) and over a quarter of the Russian population, It includes the capital and Russia’s largest city of Moscow and seventeen oblasts: Belgorod, Bryansk, Vladimir, Voronezh, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Kostroma, Kursk, Lipetsk, Moscow, Oryol, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tambov, Tver, Tula and Yaroslavl. In 1897, this area was covered by the governorates of Kaluga, Kostroma, Kursk, Tver, Moscow, Orel (Oryol), Ryazan, Smolensk, Tambov, Tula, Voronezh, Vladimir and Yaroslavl, and the Uyezds of Mglinsky, Novozybkovsky, Starodubsky and Chernihiv of the Governorate of Chernigov, the rest of which is in Ukraine.
• Northwestern: Has an area of 1,677,900 sq km (10%) and a tenth of the population. It includes Russia’s second largest city of Saint Petersburg, the republics of Karelia and Komi, and seven oblasts: Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Murmansk, Novgorod and Pskov. In 1897, this area was covered by the governorates of Arkhangelsk, Novgorod, Olonetsk (Olonets), Pskov, St. Petersburg, and Vologda, and the Uyezds of Nevelsky and Sebezhsky of Vitebsk Governorate, the rest of which is in Latvia and Belarus.
• Southern: Has an area of 418,500 sq km (2%) and a tenth of the population. It includes Krasnodar Krai, the republics of Adygea and Kalmykia, and three oblasts: Astrakhan, Volgograd and Rostov. In 1897, this area was covered by the governorates of Black Sea, Don, Kuban and Astrakhan excluding Inner Kirghiz Horde Uyezd which is in Kazakhstan.
• North Caucasian: Has an area of 170,700 sq km (1%) and 7% of the population. It includes Stavropol Krai and six republics: Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkar, Karachay-Cherkess, North Ossetia-Alania and Chechenia. In 1897, this area was covered by the governorates of Dagestan, Stavropol and Terek.
• Volga: Has an area of 1,038,000 sq km (6%) and a fifth of the population. It includes Perm Krai, six republics: Bashkortostan, Mari El, Mordovia, Tatarstan, Udmurt and Chuvash, and seven oblasts: Kirov, Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburg, Penza, Samara, Saratov and Ulyanovsk. In 1897, this area was covered by the governorates of Kazan, Penza, Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburg, Samara, Saratov, Simbirskaya (Simbirsk), Vyatka and Ufa.
• Ural: Has an area of 1,788,900 sq km (10%) and 8% of the population. It includes four oblasts: Kurgan, Sverdlovsk, Tyumen and Chelyabinsk. In 1897, this area was covered by Tobolsk governorate.
• Siberian: Has an area of 5,114,800 sq km (30%) and 13% of the population. It includes four republics: Altai, Buryatia, Tyva and Khakassia, and three krais: Altai, Transbaikal (Zabaykalsky) and Krasnoyarsk, and five oblasts: Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Novosibirsk, Omsk and Tomsk. In 1897, this area was covered by the governorates of Irkutsk, Tomsk, Transbaikal and Yenisei, and Omsk Uyezd of Akmola Oblast, the rest of which is in Kazakhstan.
• Far Eastern: Has an area of 6,215,900 sq km (36%) and 4% of the population. It includes Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, three krais: Kamchatka, Primorsky and Khabarovsk, and three oblasts: Amur, Magadan and Sakhalin, and Jewish Autonomous Oblast and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. In 1897, this area was covered by the governorates of Amur, Maritime (Primorskaya), Sakhalin Island and Yakut.

According to estimates, the Muslim population increased from 1.05 million or 6.5% of the total population in 1719, to 1.43 million or 6.1% in 1762, to 2.14 million or 5.0% in 1795, to 5.66 million or 7.4% in 1867. The 1897 census of the Russian Empire found 13,906,972 Muslims or 11.07% of the total population of 125,640,021. From this, in current Russia lived 4.6 million or 6.7% of the total population in the lands currently controlled by the Russian Federation.

Censuses in Russia since 1926 include ethnic demography, from which we can deduce religion. The top thirty Muslim ethnicities in Russia from largest in number are Tatar, Bashkir, Chechen, Avar, Kazakh, Azeri, Dargin, Kumyk, Lezgin, Ingush, Uzbek, Karachai, Tajik, Lak, Tabasaran, Adyghe, Balkar, Turk, Nogai, Kyrgyz, Cherkes, Abaza, Turkmen, Rutul, Agul, Kurd, Tasakhur, Arab and Afghan. The number of members of each of these ethnicities since 1926 is provided in Table 4.2.6a. Based on ethnic censuses, the Muslim population increased from 4.65 million or 6.7% in 1897, to 5.0 million or 5.4% in 1926, to 6.6 million or 6.1% in 1939, to 7.1 million or 6.0% in 1959, to 9.1 million or 7.0% in 1970, to 10.1 million or 7.4% in 1979, to 11.8 million or 8.1% in 1989, to 14.4 million or 10.0% in 2002, to 14.9 million or 10.9% in 2010, to 14.9 million or 11.6% in 2020. Thus, assuming that the percentage of Muslims will continue to increase by half of a percentage point per decade; then the Muslim population is expected to exceed seventeen million, reaching 13% by 2050 and 15.5% by 2100.

80% of the Muslim population in Russia lives North Caucasian and Volga Federal Districts, where their share of the population increased to 63% and 21% respectively. Another 20% of the Muslim population lives in Ural, Central and Southern Federal Districts. The share of Muslims has been increasing in every federal district since 1950s, however over 90% of Russian Muslim population lives in the European part of Russia, which has increased from 30% in 1959.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Russia

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.