Islam in Tajikistan: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Tajikistan

The Muslim conquest of Tajikistan started by Qutaiba bnu Muslim alBahili during the reign of the sixth Umayyad Caliph al-Walid I bnuAbdel Malik bnu Marwan. In 714/96H he captured Khudjand; north ofTajikistan, on Syr Darya River and the capital of Sughd Province. Theconquest of Tajikistan by the Russians started in 1864/1280H and wasonly completed upon the fall of the Emirate of Bokhara in 1920/1338H.The current territory of Tajikistan was carved out by the Soviets fromhistoric Turkistan in two stages. First, in 1924/1343H the TajikAutonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (ASSR) was created as part ofUzbek Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR). Then in 1929/1348H, Tajik ASSRwas upgraded to Tajik SSR with the addition of the Sughd Province fromUzbek SSR, which has an area of 25,400 sq km and is the northwest partof current Tajikistan. It gained its independence upon the dissolution ofthe Soviet Union in 1991/1412H. Currently, the Republic of Tajikistan hasan area of 143,100 sq km

The 1897 Russian Empire census indicated that Muslims made up99.1% of the total population of Tajikistan in its current borders. Thisestimate is based on the data from Penjikent City, Khujand Uyezd andhalf of rural areas in Samarkand Uyezd, all in Samarkand Oblast whichis mostly in Uzbekistan and half of rural areas in Osh Uyezd of FerghanaOblast, where the other half is in Uzbekistan

Censuses since 1926 collected ethnic affiliation demography of thepopulation. The number of members of each Muslim ethnicity since 1897that was ever larger than one hundred is provided in Table 2.2.5a. As thename of the country suggests, the number of Tajiks with respect to thetotal population increased from 62% in 1989, to 80% in 2000 to 84% in2010. Up to 1989, the Uzbek nationality included Lakai, KongratDurmen, Katagan, Barlos, Yuzi, Mingi, Kesamiry and Semizy.

According to census data and as summarized in Table 2.2.5b, theMuslim population increased in number but decreased in percentagefrom 0.82 million or 98.8% in 1926, to 1.23 million or 89.3% in 1937, to1.31 million or 88.4% in 1939, to 1.62 million or 81.7% in 1959. However,it continued increasing since then in both number and percentage to 2.43million or 83.9% in 1970, to 3.28 million or 86.1% in 1979, to 4.56 millionor 89.6% in 1989, to 6.05 million or 98.7% in 2000, to 7.52 million or 99.5%in 2010.

Thus, assuming the percentage of Muslims will remain constant; thenthe Muslim population is expected to reach fifteen million by 2050 andtwenty million by 2100.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Tajikistan

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.