Islam in Turkey: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Turkey

The Republic of Turkiye was declared in 1923 as the successor state ofthe Ottoman Empire. It has a total area of 783,562 sq km, covering theAnatolian Peninsula in Asia, and East Thrace (23,764 sq km) in Europe.

The Muslim conquest of current Turkiye was very slow as it wasunder the Byzantine Empire. This conquest was initiated by the captureof the southernmost city of Antakya in Shaban 15H or September 636ADduring the reign of Caliph Omar bnul Khattab and the Muslim troopswere under the leadership of the Prophet’s companion Abu ObaydaAamer bnul Jarrah. Then Muslims conquered Malatya in 638, Diyarbakirin 639 and Van in 640. Then during the Umayyad Dynasty, Muslimscaptured Erzurum in 700, then Amorium, 200Km southwest of Ankara in838 by the Abbassid Caliph al-Motassim.

Coming from the east, the Seljuks captured almost all of Anatoliaafter the battle of Manzikert with the Byzantines in 1071 north of VanLake. Thus, Ankara fell in 1073, Izmir in 1076, and the Asian part ofIstanbul in 1077. They captured Samsun in the north in 1200.

During the reign of Sultan Orhan I, the Ottomans conquered Bursa in1326 and became their capital for a while. Edirne in East Thrace wascaptured by the Ottoman Sultan Murad I in 1365. Then the Europeanside of Istanbul in 1453 during the reign of the Ottoman SultanMohammed II el-Fatih ben Murad II (ruled from 1451 to 1481). Hegained his eternal nickname “el-Fatih” or the conqueror, due to thisconquest. The conquest of current Turkiye was culminated with thecapture Trabzon in the north in 1461

Based on census data and as shown in Table 2.1.6, the Muslimpopulation increased from 11.0 million or 79.1% in 1897, to 12.0 millionor 79.0% in 1906, to 13.3 million or 80.1% in 1914. The 1897 to 1914estimates for current borders of Turkiye were taken from [TR897],excluding the lands that were under Russian/Armenian occupationbetween 1878 and 1917. These were Kars, Artvin and Suramli and theirdata was taken from the 1897 Russian census, which gives the Muslimsversus total population as 145,852 vs. 290,654 for Kars, 41,580 vs. 56,140for Artvin, and 60,516 vs. 89,055 for Surmali. Religious data for Kars wastaken from [SU], while that for Artivin and Surmali was inferred fromethnic data in [QQ]. Estimate of both populations for these areas was estimated to increase by 25% from 1897 to 1906, and 50% from 1897 to1914. The Muslim and total population in 1906 for Edirne Vilayet(excluding parts outside current Turkiye) was taken as the average of thedata from 1897 and 1906.

The Muslim population decreased in number but increased inpercentage from to 13.3 million or 97.1% in 1927 due WWI massacres andexchange of populations with neighboring countries. The Muslimpopulation continued to increase since then to 18.5 million or 98.4% in1945, to 23.8 million or 98.9% in 1955, to 27.5 million or 99.0% in 1960, to31.1 million or 99.2% in 1965, which was the last census to collect data onreligion. According to reliable survies, Muslims increased to 99.8% or 64million in 2001 and 71 million in 2009, then 82 million or 98.7% in 2018.

Thus, assuming that the percentage of Muslims remains fixed at99.8%; then the Muslim population is expected to increase to 96 millionby 2050 but decrease to 83 million by 2100.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Turkey

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.