Islam in Uzbekistan: history and Muslim population data

History of Islam in Uzbekistan

The Muslim conquest of Uzbekistan started by Qutaiba bnu Muslim alBahili in 709/90H during the reign of the sixth Umayyad Caliph al-WalidI bnu Abdel Malik bnu Marwan. During this year he captured Bukharain 709/90H, Samarkand in 712/93H and in 94H/713/94H Fergana andTashkent (formerly Chach or as-Shash until the tenth century). It wasconquered by the Russian capturing Tashkent from the Khanate ofKokand in 1865/1281H, then Samarkand from the Emirate of Bokhara in1868/1284H and Karakalpakstan from the Khanate of Khiva in1873/1290H. The rest of Uzbekistan remained under the Khanate of Bokhara which in turn was a Russian protectorate, until they annexed itin 1920/1338H. The current territory of Tajikistan was carved out by theSoviets from historic Turkistan in two stages. First, in 1924/1343H theUzbek Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR) was created, which includedcurrent Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, but excluded Karakalpakstan; whichis a 160,000 sq km area northwestern part of current Uzbekistan. Then in1929/1348H, Tajik ASSR was upgraded to Tajik SSR with the addition ofthe Sughd Province from Uzbek SSR, which has an area of 25,400 sq kmand is the northwest part of current Tajikistan. Karakalpak AutonomousOblast (AO) was created in 1925/1344H and was part of the KazakhASSR until 1930, then part of the Russian SFSR until 1932/1351H, afterwhich it was elevated to Karakalpak ASSR, and then joined Uzbek SSRin 1936/1355H. It then gained its independence upon the dissolution ofthe Soviet Union in 1991/1412H. Currently, the Republic of Uzbekistanhas an area of 447,400 sq km

The 1897 Russian Empire census indicated that Muslims made up97.5% of the total population of Uzbekistan in its current borders. Thisestimate is based on Samarkand Oblast excluding Khujand Uyezd andhalf of Samarkand Uyezd, Tashkent and Amu Darya Uyezds of SyrDarya Oblast which is mostly in Kazakhstan, Ferghana Oblast excludingOsh Uyezd and half of rural areas in Margelansky Uyezd.

Censuses since 1926 collected ethnic affiliation demography of thepopulation, about fifty of whom are Muslim. The top seventeen Muslimethnicities in Uzbekistan from largest in number are Uzbek, Tajik,Kazakh, Tatar, Karakalpak, Kyrgyz, Turkmen, Turk, Azeri, Uighur,Bashkir, Persian, Gypsy (Roma), Lezgin, Lak, Arab and Dargin. Thenumber of members of each of these ethnicities since 1926 is provided inTable 2.2.7a. As the name of the country suggests, almost 80% ofMuslims are Uzbek.

Based on ethnic census data as shown in Table 2.2.7b, the Muslimpopulation increased from 4.39 million or 92.4% in 1926 (includingKarakalpak AO), to 6.0 million or 95.6% in 1939, to 6.56 million or 81.0%in 1959. The Muslim population then continued increasing in bothnumber and percentage to 9.90 million or 82.8% in 1970, to 13.17 millionor 85.6% in 1979, to 17.52 million or 88.5% in 1989. According to surveydata, the percentage of Muslims was 94.5% in 1996, then 96.3% in 2002,and 95.1% in 2011.

Thus, assuming that the percentage of the Muslim populationcontinues to increase by a half of a percentage point per decade; then theMuslim population is expected to reach 44 million or 97% by 2050 and 51million or 99.5% by 2100.

Historical Muslim population dataset for Uzbekistan

The figures below are from the CoMPS historical dataset. Population values are expressed in thousands; 2100 is a modelled projection, not a present-day count.

For the full time series and visualisation, use the interactive map above.